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Psicothema was founded in Asturias (northern Spain) in 1989, and is published jointly by the Psychology Faculty of the University of Oviedo and the Psychological Association of the Principality of Asturias (Colegio Oficial de Psicólogos del Principado de Asturias).
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Psicothema, 2008. Vol. Vol. 20 (nº 2). 205-210




Predicción de riesgo de reincidencia en agresores sexuales

Meritxell Pérez Ramírez, Santiago Redondo Illescas, Marian Martínez García, Carlos García Forero y Antonio Andrés Pueyo

Universidad de Barcelona

La evaluación del riesgo de conducta violenta es un campo emergente en la actual Psicología de la Delincuencia. A partir de la investigación sobre carreras criminales y predictores de riesgo, durante los últimos años se han desarrollado diferentes escalas de evaluación del riesgo de violencia. Uno de estos instrumentos es el Sexual Violence Risk Assessment-20 (SVR-20), traducido y adaptado al español en el Grupo de Estudios Avanzados en Violencia de la Universidad de Barcelona. El objetivo de este estudio es evaluar la capacidad del SVR-20 para predecir la reincidencia sexual en una muestra española de delincuentes sexuales. Para ello se ha aplicado el SVR-20 de forma retrospectiva a un grupo de 163 agresores sexuales ya excarcelados. La capacidad discriminativa del instrumento ha sido evaluada a través del modelo de regresión logística. Se obtuvo un porcentaje de clasificaciones correctas de los sujetos no reincidentes del 79,9% y de los sujetos reincidentes del 70,8%. La curva ROC obtenida muestra una buena capacidad discriminativa del SVR-20 con un valor de área bajo la curva (AUC) de 0.83. La principal conclusión de este estudio es que el SVR-20 es un instrumento de utilidad para mejorar los pronósticos de riesgo de violencia sexual.

Recidivism risk assessment in sex offenders. Violent behaviour risk assessment is one of the most relevant research areas in current Psychology of Crime. Various scales for violence risk assessment have recently been developed from research about crime careers and risk factors. One of these instruments is the Sexual Violence Risk Assessment-20 (SVR-20), translated and adapted to Spanish by the Group of Advanced Studies in Violence of the University of Barcelona. The goal of this study is to verify the predictive capacity of the SVR-20 to predict sexual violence recidivism in a Spanish sample of sexual offender inmates. The method used was a retrospective study based in 163 sexual offender files and a 4-year time lag. The data were analysed with the logistic regression technique. Of the sample, 79.9% non-recidivist individuals were correctly classified, and 70.8% recidivist individuals. The ROC curve obtained for the model shows a very good discriminant capacity for the SVR-20, with a 0.83 AUC value. The main conclusion of this study is that the Spanish adaptation of SVR-20 is a good instrument to predict the risk of sexual violence.

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