Psicothema was founded in Asturias (northern Spain) in 1989, and is published jointly by the Psychology Faculty of the University of Oviedo and the Psychological Association of the Principality of Asturias (Colegio Oficial de Psicología del Principado de Asturias).
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Sociodemographic variables, risk factors, and protective factors contributing to youth recidivism

Lidón Villanueva1, Selene Valero-Moreno2, Keren Cuervo1, and Vicente Javier Prado-Gascó2

1 Universitat Jaume I and
2 University of Valencia

Background: This study explores the predictive capabilities of sociodemographic characteristics and risk and protective factors for youth recidivism while comparing two analytical methodologies; logistic prediction models and qualitative comparative analysis models. Methods: information from the judicial files of 389 young offenders (14-19.03 years) were gathered from the Juvenile Court and risk and protective factors were extracted from the administration of the Youth Level Service/Case Management Inventory. Recidivism data was also obtained for a follow-up period of two years for each young person. Results: the results showed two different profiles of reoffenders. Most were young boys with high risk scores and low protective factors, but a minority were young foreign girls with crimes against persons and low protective factors. Conclusions: being able to detect the different variables that contribute to recidivism can help implement prevention programs tailored to the criminogenic needs of each specific profile.

Variables sociodemográficas, factores de riesgo y factores de protección determinantes en la reincidencia juvenil. Introducción: este estudio tiene como objetivo explorar las capacidades predictivas de las variables sociodemográficas, los factores de riesgo y los de protección en la reincidencia de menores infractores, comparando dos metodologías analíticas: modelos de regresión logística y modelos de análisis cualitativos comparativos. Método: los participantes fueron 389 menores infractores (14-19,3 años) del Juzgado de Menores, a los cuales se les administró el Youth Level Service/Case Management Inventory. Se obtuvieron datos sobre la reincidencia en un período de seguimiento de dos años para cada participante. Resultados: se encontraron dos perfiles diferentes de reincidentes, la mayoría eran varones jóvenes con puntuaciones altas en factores de riesgo y bajas en factores de protección. Por el contrario, se halló una minoría de jóvenes extranjeras con delitos contra las personas y escasos factores de protección. Conclusiones: detectar las diferentes variables que contribuyen a la reincidencia puede ayudar a implementar programas de prevención adaptados a las necesidades criminógenas de cada perfil específico.


Impact factor 2022:  JCR WOS 2022:  FI = 3.6 (Q2);  JCI = 1.21 (Q1) / SCOPUS 2023:  SJR = 1.07;  CiteScore = 6.4 (Q1)